[
  {
    "id": "monthly-Maryland-12-17",
    "claim": "Past-month prevalence fell between 2022\u20132023 and 2023\u20132024 in Maryland, ages 12-17.",
    "status": "unresolved",
    "reason": "Published difference -0.34 percentage points; SAMHSA p=0.590. Nominal descriptive test only; policy causation not established.",
    "source": "SAMHSA comparison Table 3"
  },
  {
    "id": "monthly-Maryland-18+",
    "claim": "Past-month prevalence rose between 2022\u20132023 and 2023\u20132024 in Maryland, ages 18+.",
    "status": "unresolved",
    "reason": "Published difference +0.62 percentage points; SAMHSA p=0.443. Nominal descriptive test only; policy causation not established.",
    "source": "SAMHSA comparison Table 3"
  },
  {
    "id": "monthly-New Jersey-12-17",
    "claim": "Past-month prevalence fell between 2022\u20132023 and 2023\u20132024 in New Jersey, ages 12-17.",
    "status": "unresolved",
    "reason": "Published difference -0.63 percentage points; SAMHSA p=0.330. Nominal descriptive test only; policy causation not established.",
    "source": "SAMHSA comparison Table 3"
  },
  {
    "id": "monthly-New Jersey-18+",
    "claim": "Past-month prevalence rose between 2022\u20132023 and 2023\u20132024 in New Jersey, ages 18+.",
    "status": "unresolved",
    "reason": "Published difference +0.82 percentage points; SAMHSA p=0.298. Nominal descriptive test only; policy causation not established.",
    "source": "SAMHSA comparison Table 3"
  },
  {
    "id": "monthly-Ohio-12-17",
    "claim": "Past-month prevalence fell between 2022\u20132023 and 2023\u20132024 in Ohio, ages 12-17.",
    "status": "unresolved",
    "reason": "Published difference -0.65 percentage points; SAMHSA p=0.342. Nominal descriptive test only; policy causation not established.",
    "source": "SAMHSA comparison Table 3"
  },
  {
    "id": "monthly-Ohio-18+",
    "claim": "Past-month prevalence rose between 2022\u20132023 and 2023\u20132024 in Ohio, ages 18+.",
    "status": "unresolved",
    "reason": "Published difference +0.66 percentage points; SAMHSA p=0.314. Nominal descriptive test only; policy causation not established.",
    "source": "SAMHSA comparison Table 3"
  },
  {
    "id": "level-Maryland-12-17",
    "claim": "SAMHSA estimates past-month use at 6.36% in Maryland, ages 12-17, for pooled 2023\u20132024.",
    "status": "supported",
    "reason": "Published 95% credible interval: 4.79\u20138.39%. A state-level period estimate, not a county estimate or policy effect.",
    "source": "SAMHSA prevalence Table 3"
  },
  {
    "id": "level-Maryland-18+",
    "claim": "SAMHSA estimates past-month use at 15.65% in Maryland, ages 18+, for pooled 2023\u20132024.",
    "status": "supported",
    "reason": "Published 95% credible interval: 13.25\u201318.39%. A state-level period estimate, not a county estimate or policy effect.",
    "source": "SAMHSA prevalence Table 3"
  },
  {
    "id": "level-New Jersey-12-17",
    "claim": "SAMHSA estimates past-month use at 5.40% in New Jersey, ages 12-17, for pooled 2023\u20132024.",
    "status": "supported",
    "reason": "Published 95% credible interval: 4.14\u20137.02%. A state-level period estimate, not a county estimate or policy effect.",
    "source": "SAMHSA prevalence Table 3"
  },
  {
    "id": "level-New Jersey-18+",
    "claim": "SAMHSA estimates past-month use at 15.24% in New Jersey, ages 18+, for pooled 2023\u20132024.",
    "status": "supported",
    "reason": "Published 95% credible interval: 13.28\u201317.44%. A state-level period estimate, not a county estimate or policy effect.",
    "source": "SAMHSA prevalence Table 3"
  },
  {
    "id": "level-Ohio-12-17",
    "claim": "SAMHSA estimates past-month use at 6.48% in Ohio, ages 12-17, for pooled 2023\u20132024.",
    "status": "supported",
    "reason": "Published 95% credible interval: 5.22\u20138.03%. A state-level period estimate, not a county estimate or policy effect.",
    "source": "SAMHSA prevalence Table 3"
  },
  {
    "id": "level-Ohio-18+",
    "claim": "SAMHSA estimates past-month use at 17.19% in Ohio, ages 18+, for pooled 2023\u20132024.",
    "status": "supported",
    "reason": "Published 95% credible interval: 15.58\u201318.92%. A state-level period estimate, not a county estimate or policy effect.",
    "source": "SAMHSA prevalence Table 3"
  },
  {
    "id": "ohio-causal",
    "claim": "Ohio retail opening caused a change in adolescent use in these pooled estimates.",
    "status": "not-testable",
    "reason": "Retail began near the end of 2024; pooled windows mix pre/post time and cannot identify a causal effect.",
    "source": "SAMHSA guide/change methods; policy_dates.csv"
  },
  {
    "id": "null-means-none",
    "claim": "A nonsignificant comparison proves no effect.",
    "status": "unresolved",
    "reason": "Failure to detect a difference is not an equivalence test and does not prove absence of a change or policy effect.",
    "source": "SAMHSA guide/change methods; policy_dates.csv"
  },
  {
    "id": "county",
    "claim": "Ohio state estimates describe Delaware County prevalence.",
    "status": "not-testable",
    "reason": "State estimates do not identify county prevalence.",
    "source": "SAMHSA guide/change methods; policy_dates.csv"
  },
  {
    "id": "treatment",
    "claim": "The release shows a comparable 2023 to 2024 treatment trend.",
    "status": "not-testable",
    "reason": "Guide states treatment estimates are 2024-only because 2023 measures are not comparable.",
    "source": "SAMHSA guide/change methods; policy_dates.csv"
  },
  {
    "id": "historic",
    "claim": "Modern estimates can be directly compared with 2019 state estimates.",
    "status": "not-testable",
    "reason": "SAMHSA guide says 2021 onward multimode estimates are not comparable with 2020/prior.",
    "source": "SAMHSA guide/change methods; policy_dates.csv"
  }
]